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The problem with predictions

Last year was a whirlwind of forecasts, particularly in the financial world. Every other day, there seemed to be a new prediction about an impending recession in the United States.

Bloomberg Economics put the probability of a recession in 2023 at a stark 100%—in other words, complete certainty.

The worst use of your imagination

If you looked into my mind’s control room a few years ago, you’d find an overworked, adrenaline-fueled crew on high alert.

They operated under a relentless motto: “Imagine the worst, and you’ll never be disappointed.”

Development Alchemy + Aim